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Close-up on the lower left quadrant of the extent of the change. It appears that the change that could have been the leading edge of the decline is occurring now. If this region were part of the so called “Asian Contraction,” it would confirm the existence of the now thought to be completely bogus Eurasian Contraction that is being used to explain the sell off.
The chart has the leading edge in effect.
From Sprott Money Reserve:
The British Pound has breached a long standing critical level of support from $1.13 to $1.30, and has now moved into a price channel defined by resistance at $1.40. The equivalent of the previous $1.12 level of support has been breached and a key resistance in the channel at $1.40 is now in effect. The current pound strength was caused by the increase in the selling pressure on the currency as the US Fed launched QE3 and the BOE announced their QE3. The back and forth selling by the speculators has also seen the pound move above the $1.40 level and the $1.50 level, thus the risk level of the pound has been increasing. The previous $1.12 level of support has also been breached but the risk of the pound has decreased as it has breached another level of support, i.e. the $1.13 level. With this new level of resistance in the channel, the risk is further reduced, however, a break below $1.13 is still likely.
The trade therefore has a risk appetite going for it. However, the pound should come down even further if the BOE and US Fed actions of this week continue, and the risk of the pound is increasing now. It is clear the BOE QE3 and the US Fed QE3 could be the trigger for future weakness in the pound and this risk is still increased. So far, the trade has performed well as the pound has risen to the $1.50 level and this could be the start of a much larger downside move if the speculators do not exit their long position. The change of control in the UK election and the BOE action in the latest policy statement can have a stronger effect on the pound than the QE3 actions of
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